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![]() ![]() The estimates also assume that the vaccine prevents infection rather than just reducing the severity of coronavirus symptoms. Much is still unknown about how long immunity from vaccines will last, or how well the vaccines will protect against new variants of the virus. But in a scenario where a new but less effective vaccine arrives, we might not reach the threshold through vaccination alone.Īnd the model comes with some other caveats. We can be more certain of reaching herd immunity when the pink line for vaccinations crosses into that range. It’s important to note that the orange line for total immunity relies on an estimate of who has already been infected, including people who have immunity from undiagnosed cases. May Threshold reached July Threshold reached Dec. The more people we vaccinate, the faster we could reach the threshold for herd immunity. (Because the current vaccines require two doses spaced weeks apart, the number of people fully vaccinated each day is smaller.) Some experts say we could nearly double that pace by April as new vaccines are approved. is currently administering about 1.7 million shots per day. More than 15 million people have been fully vaccinated, and the U.S. In most scenarios, millions more people will become infected and tens or hundreds of thousands more will die before herd immunity is reached. The rise of new virus variants and how we respond to them will also affect the path to herd immunity. The speed and uptake of vaccination, and how long immunity lasts are big factors. But a lot could happen between now and then. The exact threshold for herd immunity for the coronavirus is unknown, but recent estimates range from 70 percent to 90 percent.Īt first, this looks like pretty good news - under these assumptions, we could reach herd immunity as early as July. When the orange line crosses into the blue area, that means we have entered the herd immunity range. It looks at the number of people who have been fully vaccinated and combines that with an estimate of the number of people who have been infected and have recovered to measure total immunity. This chart shows the current path to herd immunity in the United States, based on a model developed by PHICOR, a public health research group. 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% of population immune Herd immunity range Total immunityĭec. ![]()
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